UTTARAKHAND ASSEMBLY ELECTION- 2017

The Ground Realities

In Uttarakhand, the main opposition BJP is expecting gains by “exposing” the ruling  Congress “misrule” and infighting-cum-rebellion. Congress , on the other hand , hopes that the last-minute makeover as this time BJP is fighting the election without any credible chief ministerial face like Mr Clean’ BC Khanduri. It is for the first time that Congress is fighting the election with a CM-face as Harish Rawat.

Congress and BJP are at the moment running neck to neck while BSP and other small partys like UKD (P) may become king-maker as if no-party gets clear cut majority in the 70-member Uttarakhand assembly.

Kumaun vs Garhwal divide

The regional divide is very clear this time in assembly election of Uttarakhand as present CM Harish Rawat is from Kumoun region. Congress is in tough situation after the change of side by their key leaders- Satpal Mharaj, Vijay Bahuguna and Harish Rawat- in Garhwal region to the BJP. On the other side Congress is in strong position in Kumaun region as it is intact there.

Kumaun region has (29) assembly seats which is spread in (5) hilly districts of Pithouragarh, Champawat, Bageshwar, Almora, Nainital and (1) plain area of Udhamsingh Nagar.

Garhwal region has (41) assembly seats which is spread in (5) hilly districts Chamoli, Pauri Garhwal, Rudraprayag, Tehri Garhwal, and Uttarkashi and (2) comparative plain districts of Dehradun and Haridwar.

Status	Kumaun Region	Garhwal Region	Total
Assembly Constituencies	29	41	70
Districts	6	7	13

BJP and a fraction of Congress leaders of Garhwal region allege CM Harish Rawat of favoritism on regional basis, which likely to impact the Congress prospect in bigger Garhwal region.

Hill vs Plain

The issue of delimitation in year 2008 gained huge attention as it reduced the number of seats in the hills and created more seats in the densely populated plain areas such as Haridwar, Dehradun and Udham Singh Nagar. While the plain area comprises only 7.43% of the total land area which is almost half of the state’s population, i.e. approximately 8.49 million.

On the contrary, more development work is done in plain areas than hilly areas. As we know that, after delimitation number of assembly seats in Hilly districts of Uttarakhand are decreased and it’s very remarkable for both partys in terms of PAHADI vs PLAIN conflict. Party with clear agenda for development of hilly areas may gain in these lesser but deciding assembly’s as these areas has greater scope for development.

Delimitation Status	Hill Area Assemblies	Plain Area Assemblies
Pre-Delimitation	40	30
Post-Delimitation	34	36
Gain	- (06)	+ (06)

‘OTHER’ factor in Uttarakhand

Make a look on the table given below for comparison of the two national parties (BJP & Congress) with BSP, UKD & rest Others -

Assembly Election	BJP		Congress		BJP+Congress
	MLA's	% Votes	MLA's	% Votes	MLA's	% Votes
2002	19	24	36	27	55	51
2007	34	32	21	30	55	62
2012	31	33	32	34	63	67

Assembly Election	BSP		UKD		OTHERS		BSP+UKD+ OTHERS
Year	MLA's	% Votes	MLA's	% Votes	MLA's	% Votes	MLA's	% Votes
2002	07	11	04	6	04	32	15	49
2007	08	12	03	6	04	20	15	38
2012	03	12	01	2	03	19	07	33

After analyzing the seat-vote share data of (3) consecutive assembly election , it is clear that although the combined Seat share of BSP-UKD-Others decrease by nearly half since 2002 but it is also in decisive in forming the government in (70) member assembly of Uttarakhand.

After the split verdict of 2012 assembly election Congress form the government with the help of BSP, UKD(P) and Independents as the 3-member BSP and three independents as well as lone member from the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal voted in favour of the trust motion.

And again in 2016 after the rebellion of (9) Congress MLA's which fallowed by their disqualification by the Speaker, the Harish Rawat led government was saved by the grand Progressive Democratic Front (PDF) allince of BSP(02)-UKD (01)-Independents(03). The PDF has been supporting the Congress government in the state since its formation in 2012.

Both Congress and BJP fighting all (70) seats without making any pre-poll alliance with these partys, so the number of seats in OTHERS column on counting day is most interesting one in Uttarakhand.

BSP: The King-Maker?

In Assembly election of 2012, BSP win over in three seats and polled second place on 8 seats. However the swing away from Congress in-general is coming to BJP; but it is interesting to see that what strategy will be adopted by the BJP and Congress on those 11 seats which seems to be strong pockets of BSP due to Dalit-Muslim combination of voters. So, the BSP- factor is crucial in Uttarakhand this time too. In this condition BSP may become KING-MAKER in formation of next government in Uttarakhand.

If BSP prospect goes better; it will eat only Dalit-Muslim votes and hurt Congress and in case of no tactical alliance between Congress & BSP, it will help BJP in terms seats. If we go through the 2 table of BSP performance as Winner & Runner on total (11) seats in 2012 Assembly Election.

Congress is runner-up in all the (03) seats won by BSP in 2012.

DIST_Name	AC_Name	AC_Type	Winner 2012	Runner-2012	Win Margin
Hardwar	Bhagwanpur	SC	BSP	INC	6781
Hardwar	Jhabrera	SC	BSP	INC	3809
Hardwar	Manglore	GEN	BSP	INC	698

On the (08) seats where BSP was Runner-up in 2012 assembly election, (04) each held by Congress & BJP.

DIST_Name	AC_Name	AC_Type	Winner 2012	Runner-2012	Win Margin
Hardwar	Jwalapur	SC	BJP	BSP	558
Hardwar	Pirankaliyar	GEN	INC	BSP	1944
Hardwar	Khanpur	GEN	INC	BSP	2831
Hardwar	Laksar	GEN	BJP	BSP	10394
Champawat	Champawat	GEN	INC	BSP	6953
Nainital	Bhimtal	GEN	BJP	BSP	6443
Udhamsingh Nagar	Jaspur	GEN	INC	BSP	2780
Udhamsingh Nagar	Sitarganj	GEN	BJP	BSP	12612

It is clear through these two tables that in Uttarakhand, the conflict of interest on party and candidate level is more between BSP and Congress. Either the two paty’s has to go in tactical alliance or they have to face the heat of BJP as the 3^rd strong force in the state on these particular (11) assembly seats. Congress is trying hard to lure the BSP MLA’s to change the side and fight election on Congress symbol.

Assembly lead in 2014 Parliamentary Election

It is important to see that how much the BJP will gain from the super-duper victory of 5-0 in parliamentary election of 2014. In PCE-2009 Congress leads in 51 assembly segment in compare to 19 of BJP and letter on just in two & a half year time period the lead converted to win on just 32 seats for Congress, that means they make a downward moment in 19 constituencies where as BJP improved his tally by 12 seats winning a total of 31 assembly seats.

Party	AC Lead in   Parliamentary Election-2009	AC Win in Assembly Electio-2012	AC Lead in Parliamentary Election--2014
Congress	51	32	07
BJP	19	31	63

It is important to see what happened in 63 assembly leads of BJP in parliamentary election of 2014? The BJP's Central leadership with the agenda of Development sounds good with no Corruption charge since 2014.

Corruption as poll Issue

In September 2011, BJP central leadership , which was in the thick of its campaign against the UPA government in New Delhi over corruption scams like 2G and CWG, decided that retaining Pokhariyal as Uttarakhand CM would be counter-productive and fielded Khanduri as CM-face of the party which benefited largerly in 2012 assembly election. Now nearly same corruption charges are placed against Congress CM Harish Rawat who is also the CM-face of pary in this election, so it will negatively pay for Congress this time.    

 Anti Incumbency Factor

As the Congress is in power, it is at the receiving end. But it has taken no effective steps to minimize the factor at candidate selection on MLA level to minimize the rebellion and infighting.  Congress is not in a posiotion to change its ticket distribution formula of Status-quo, however the BJP has changed its “sitting is getting” rule in 2012 which help the party's performance with loss of just three seats to 2007.

On one hand, the BJP not given tickets to about a dozen of its incumbent MLA’s in 2012 - is including Khajandas & Govind Bisht, who are  ministers in that time government; the Congress has denied tickets to only one sitting MLA. This was also done out of necessity, as the seat was converted from a SC seat to that of General. So while Congress is at a disadvantage, as it is the incumbent party in the state, the Congress may also have to loose a few seats, as it has retained many of its incumbent MLA’s.

Favoritism & Nepotism 

The BJP has scored points over Congress in this matter, as PM Modi recently announced very clearly during BJP's National Executive convention which take place on January 6-8 in New Delhi that No second ticket to kin/relative during assembly election. It helps to boost energy level in BJP's ground level workers and to give chances to new faces of party.

Congress has yielded to the pressure of some of its prominent leaders, and likely to give tickets on dear & near ones of old leaders. For instance in 2012, two dears of former Congress chief minister N.D Tiwari had been given tickets, although none of whom are believed to have a strong local support. The BJP, on the other hand, has played cautiously on the matter. It took a stern decision to deny tickets to senior leader Rajnath Singh’s close relatives, who is an ex-President of BJP.

Infighting & Rebels

The Congress major concern in the state is the infighting within the party. The party was internally divided into groups of, CM Harish Rawat, state president Kishor Upadhyay and ex-president Yaspal Arya. The long time associated Congress leaders like Vijay Bahuguna, Saptal Maharaj, and Harak Singh Rawat is now in BJP. Now These groups and the rebellion have been known to put personal interest over party interest. According to some estimates, Congress can lose up to five to ten seats due to infighting.

 SO; WHAT SHOULD THE CONGRESS DO?

Development & Employment as issues

Issue of corruption in Uttarakhand’s Congress led government may help to a large extent as it’s similarly applicable to Congress in central as well as in states government like Maharashtra, Haryana in 2014. This issue is hurting Congress. It's better for Congress to make Development & Employment as issues accordance to the voter’s mindset in Uttarakhand.

To appeal in Youth or first time voters

Congress must utilize the image of Rahul & Priyanka Gandhi. He is very popular among all class of Uttarakhandi voters.

Harish Rawat as CM face 

Already much damage has been done by infighting of Congress over the CM-ship aspirants like- Harish Rwat, Kishor Upadhyay, Indira Hredyesh , & Yashpal Arya ; but now onward; one single projection of leadership should be done just to make sure that people see a unified face in the Media at the least.

Brahmin- Rajput balance

Congress's Harish Rawat projected as CM-face. Harish belongs to Kumouon region and a Khashtriya face. Out of the seven chief ministers Uttarakhand has had since 2000, only Harish Rawat is thakur, while the remaining — Nityanand Swami, Bhagat Singh Kosiyari, ND Tiwari, BC Khanduri, Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank and Vijay Bahuguna — are brahmans. As Rawat has a mass appeal among Rajputs which accounts for 40-50 % of state's population. On the other hand senior most Uttarkhand Cabinet Minister Indira Hridayesh, a woman and Brahmin face is the best choice in assemblys dominated by Brahmins,which constitutes some 35-40 % of state voters.

Kumauni & Garhwali Conflict

Kumoun send some 29 MLA's to assembly where as Garhwal region account for 41 seats. Congress has to adopt a much focused approach in Kumauni region. CM Harish Rawat belong to Kumaun region, so it is the most important region to focus. In Garhwal region, Congress have to work on candidate level and Central leadership to focus there during election campaigning.

Managing the rebel candidates is big time problem for the Congress, especially in Garhwal region as Eight of the nine Congress legislators who revolted against deposed Chief Minister Harish Rawat during the passage of the annual budget in the state Assembly on March 18 last year are from Garhwal. Already almost dozen seats are in danger just because of the presence of rebel candidates. These are to be dealt on priority.

OROP & surgical strike as poll issue: Central government may use OROP & surgical strike as an achievement among large number of army personals in Uttarakhand. So, make a proper strategy to counter both in a very polite way.

Use of Local & Natioanl Leadership in poll campaign Although Congress has a very effective local leadership; but all these big leaders are involved in conspiring against each others. They win for themselves in place of winning the election for the Congress. So, it's very necessary to control them by giving clear-cut message regarding party discipline. Take central leaders in the campaign they are useful. In fact they are productive in terms of giving assurance by central leadership for development agenda. 

Merit Based Candidate Selection

Without taking any kind of favors, decide candidates purely on the basis of ground level reports to minimize the anti-incumbeny at local level and to stop the negativity caused by nepotism in party cadre.  

(Written by Devendra Shukla,associated with Team CVOTER News Service. He is presently heading the Research Desk in DD News)